If you buy laptops, phones or servers, plan for memory to cost more through 2027 and for vendors to pass some of that on. Apple, one of the best-resourced buyers in the market, says it expects higher memory costs in the December quarter, and its main suppliers warn that the shortage will not clear soon. Smaller buyers have less leverage and less inventory to lean on.

What happened

On its 2 November earnings call, Apple described current memory pricing as “unprecedented”, in the words of CEO John Ternus. Memory cost more in the September quarter than in June, and Apple expects costs to rise again in the December quarter. Tom’s Hardware also relays an unattributed report that Apple’s manufacturing bill has climbed by $33 billion in just a few months. That report gives no clear basis and does not tie the figure to memory, so treat it with caution.

Apple has cushioned the impact so far. Ternus pointed to memory bought earlier at lower prices, cheaper non-memory components and price changes: Mac and iPad prices rose at the end of June and iPhone prices followed in September. Tom’s Hardware notes that the June changes included a $400 rise in the starting price of the MacBook Pro. Apple has not announced another round of increases. 9to5Mac adds that Apple also flagged Siri AI expenses as extra pressure on holiday quarter margins.

Suppliers sound no more upbeat. Samsung says memory demand will far exceed supply as AI infrastructure grows. Its memory division reported higher average DRAM prices in the third quarter compared with the second, and NAND prices rose by high-teen percentages in that same quarter. A senior Samsung memory executive warned the crunch could run to 2028 and beyond. SK Hynix said long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027 and 2028 production capacity, and Micron said supply shortages could take “considerable time” to improve.

Why it matters

Memory is no longer a minor line item that drifts with the cycle. AI data center buildouts compete with consumer and enterprise devices for the same DRAM and NAND, and suppliers say demand is winning. SK Hynix has already committed over half its 2027 and 2028 capacity to long-term agreements. That suggests, though the sources do not say so directly, that less supply will remain for buyers on the open market, and prices there could swing more.

Apple’s position also shows how cushions run out. Inventory bought at lower prices and savings elsewhere can cover a few quarters, and Apple’s own comments suggest that cover is thinning. Price rises have already become one of its tools, on Mac, iPad and iPhone. Device makers with smaller buffers face the same arithmetic with fewer options.

The pressure also reaches beyond consumer gear. Server and workstation configurations lean heavily on memory, and our earlier piece on what server buyers should plan for in 2027 covers the processor side of that planning.

What it means for you

Treat memory as a budget risk, not a rounding error. Start with your refresh calendar: list which laptops, phones and servers come due in the next 18 months and re-price them at current quotes, not last year’s.

  • Ask vendors how long a quote is valid and whether memory is a pass-through line that can change before delivery.
  • Decide whether to pull forward purchases you planned anyway. That is a cash-flow call, not a prediction that prices will move by a set amount.
  • Revisit default specs. If staff do not need the top memory tier, standardising one tier down trims cost per seat.
  • For server and cloud plans, ask whether memory-heavy instances or configurations may reprice, and check contract terms at renewal.
  • Look at software memory footprints. Engineering work that cuts RAM use now pays off directly in hardware cost.

Founders selling hardware should model margins with memory costs rising through 2027 and decide early whether to absorb the increase, reprice or change specs.

What to watch

  • Whether Apple announces another round of price increases after the holiday quarter.
  • Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron guidance on DRAM and NAND pricing in coming quarters.
  • How much 2027 and 2028 capacity suppliers commit to long-term agreements, which hints at how much is left for open-market buyers.
  • Apple’s margin commentary, as a gauge of how long inventory and other offsets can hold.

More coverage sits on our chips and hardware page.

Sources